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um

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my wife tells me never to start with a

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bad joke so i ignore her advice the kind

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of paradigm i'm going to talk about

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today doesn't have anything to do with

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20 cents

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yeah i know that was even worse than i

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thought so anyway okay

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paradigm argument against psi

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oh i can do this with this can't i

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okay

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so why do i call it the paradigm

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argument i'm gonna give you a little bit

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of background

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some most of this will be familiar but

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it doesn't hurt to have a little bit of

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a review

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the term paradigm was introduced into

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the scientific literature really

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by tom back in 1962 with his book

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structure scientific revolutions

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and the kind of paradigms he generally

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is talking about

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prevalent science involved the

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integration exploration

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integration of exploration and

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explanation

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in

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the science community they provide the

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context of discovery the form the

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forum the boundaries within which

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science discoveries are are conducted

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or made actually

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they put these boundaries around what is

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considered to be possible

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direct energies in efficient organized

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ways that's important because there is

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no matter how much money the government

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may give you for research there's never

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actually enough is there

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and you have to have some way of

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organizing your research research in

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order to accomplish

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as much as possible with it and

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paradigms

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tend to resist departures from

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established theory and practice i want

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to say a little bit more about that last

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bullet okay because in doing that they

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also establish an orthodoxy

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now

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orthodoxy has a bad connotation in

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society today everybody thinks that's

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what we should be getting away from but

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in fact orthodoxy in most cases is

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useful and valuable

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orthodoxy and of itself is not bad

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it can establish principles that are

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actually effective and helpful and and

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promote good goals and and particularly

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in research however there are times when

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orthodoxy gets out of control and we'll

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talk about that a little bit later

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so um unfortunately one of the things

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about that orthodoxy is it does um

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result in kind of comments like this at

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least as far as esp or psy is concerned

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but most of you know of or know

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personally richard wiseman and are

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familiar with this statement he says i

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agree that by the standards of any other

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area of science esp is proven but it

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begs the question do we need higher

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standards of evidence when we study the

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paranormal

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i think we do

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okay and he of course is one of a large

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chorus of people making the kind of same

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sort of

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demand brings to mind marcelo troussy's

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extraordinary claims require

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extraordinary proof

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so why do many scientists find psi or

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so

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first

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it's the old idea if it ain't broke

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don't fix it our current scientific

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paradigm works really well

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in fact arguably it's the most

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successful research paradigm

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ever

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in effect in the world's history as far

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as we know right

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it's amazing what the paradigm overall

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the general paradigm has accomplished in

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a relatively short period of time in

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human history

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so

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there's a kind of a tendency not to want

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to tinker with something that's

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producing good results

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second

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esp

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seems to violate laws of nature and

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that's upsetting

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and of course

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esp may

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itself be evidence of some non-physical

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phenomena in the universe or some

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non-physical force some

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physical aspect of the universe

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all of that

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gives

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some certain scientists a

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fit of the quivers i guess you could say

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and it doesn't help when the folks who

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are in favor of esp and psy

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make statements like this let's let's

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get together and change the paradigm

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let's create a new paradigm let's get

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beyond science let's leave all that old

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friday thinking behind

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that's bound to scare scientists as well

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and in fact

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this in itself is almost as misguided

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this whole attitude is almost as

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misguided as the orthodoxy is in

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resisting it and we'll i'll talk a

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little bit more about that later okay

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so this is the argument that the

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paradigm argument attacks

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got that

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okay

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this is the one that generally most of

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us i think support

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if there is a

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if there is the right kind of evidence

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for esp then esp must be real

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there is the right kind of evidence for

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esp

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okay

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it's very straightforward makes a lot of

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sense most people think it seems

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plausible why is why would that be wrong

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the paradigm argument generally

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specified goes like this though

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if even if you have good evidence for

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esp there's no explanatory framework for

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it if you don't have an explanatory

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framework for it it doesn't have its own

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paradigm and if it did it would be in

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conflict with the current paradigm right

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so you can't explain it

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and without that kind of a theory

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science can legitimately

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not take it seriously

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so if you have an explanation for it

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we'll let it into the club

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if you don't have an explanation for it

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it really doesn't matter how good it is

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we're going to hold it at arm's length

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so how many have heard something along

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these lines from some scientists or

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skeptics somewhere

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yeah this

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even though oftentimes it's not

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explicitly stated this is the implicit

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argument that is behind many many many

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skeptical arguments against espn psi

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okay so let's go into this little bit

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more detail first off a real phenomenon

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must be in principle from a principle

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explainable okay so i'm just breaking

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this argument down into

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into its constituent parts

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if a phenomenon is unexplainable there

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are two possibilities either the current

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paradigm is either incomplete or wrong

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it's wrong to abandon a successful

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paradigm

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just because

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you have some data that it can't manage

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every scientific theory has some anomaly

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anomalous data associated with it

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particularly relatively new ones

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and the idea is that science works on

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reconciling those anomalies with the

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base theory classic example is is

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orbit was it

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neptune i think the order of neptune

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whichever one it was had an aberration

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in it that wasn't explainable by

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copernican theory

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it was an anomaly but with further

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research they discovered why that was

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and it fit right into the model okay it

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had to do with another planet they

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didn't know was there okay

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but just because you have some data that

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doesn't work

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doesn't necessarily mean that your

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paradigm is wrong okay

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it's more reasonable to reject that data

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instead if you can't find an explanation

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for it

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and so since evidence for psi is not

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explained in fact contradicts current

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paradigmatic science say that very

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quickly several times

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we should reject the psi evidence even

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if it is scientifically produced

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okay

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it's really kind of a plausible argument

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but there's this further added thing

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that ought to be there which is until

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such a time as we can either find a way

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to fit it within the current paradigm or

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can conclusively prove the evidence is

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wrong

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or of course the outside possibility

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that the paradigm is wrong

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but when

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critics of psy and esp research

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formulate this argument

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they

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ignore the rest of it

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and so essentially the bottom line is

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ignore the esp evidence

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okay

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so here's an example not of ignoring esp

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but of

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the reasoning behind this okay so

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everybody's familiar with the geocentric

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the ptolemaic worldview cosmology idea

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the planets and the sun and everything

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went around the earth and because there

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were some strange movements in the way

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the planets sometimes seem to go

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retrograde they built

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they built in these epicycles where

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it was very convoluted kind of a complex

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system but it worked mostly

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and then the heliocentric

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theory came along and at first was

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rejected okay and uh for a long time it

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was it was kind of

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it was

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geocentric theory was continued to be

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promoted and taught

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and in fact one philosopher thinks that

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was a good thing sort of

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it says for a long time the most

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rational thing was to keep geocentrism

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warts and all it would have been

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wrong-headed to abandon geocentrism and

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its epicycles without its copernican

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replacement so just because you have an

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alternate theory

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if the theory you actually currently

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subscribe to works better in explaining

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what you've been able to observe so far

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you should keep a hold of the current

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one even though you know it may be

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essentially wrong and so this is

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elicited by this philosopher he says

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a false theory with high vera similitude

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may be the only hope to guide research

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it is better that is than no theory at

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all refutation at t requires rejection

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in principle but not rejection at t so

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in other words at a specific time you

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know your theory is wrong

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you're still better off using it

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until you have something that really

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does answer the questions

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and so under this certain this just

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underlies the idea if you don't have an

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explanation for esp then

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you don't pay much attention to it until

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you do

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okay

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so let's talk about replacement theories

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which ties right into the previous

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statement so replacement theory has to

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give you

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better explanatory power than the theory

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that it's going to replace or there's no

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point in replacing it

289
00:10:10,389 --> 00:10:07,600
okay

290
00:10:12,630 --> 00:10:10,399
and in fact if if the other theory isn't

291
00:10:14,310 --> 00:10:12,640
as good then you're better to stick with

292
00:10:16,829 --> 00:10:14,320
one you have

293
00:10:20,230 --> 00:10:16,839
there is no good theory for psi or

294
00:10:22,069 --> 00:10:20,240
esp therefore esp evidence cannot count

295
00:10:23,670 --> 00:10:22,079
against physicalism and i'm going to

296
00:10:26,150 --> 00:10:23,680
elaborate on what physicalism really

297
00:10:27,030 --> 00:10:26,160
means here shortly

298
00:10:28,790 --> 00:10:27,040
so

299
00:10:30,710 --> 00:10:28,800
statement from hails again

300
00:10:32,470 --> 00:10:30,720
esp is not consistent with either our

301
00:10:34,389 --> 00:10:32,480
best empirical theories or with our best

302
00:10:36,630 --> 00:10:34,399
philosophical theories about the mind

303
00:10:38,310 --> 00:10:36,640
keep this quote in mind it's not

304
00:10:40,710 --> 00:10:38,320
consistent with your albert either our

305
00:10:42,710 --> 00:10:40,720
best empirical theories or with our best

306
00:10:43,750 --> 00:10:42,720
philosophical some philosophical

307
00:10:45,829 --> 00:10:43,760
theories

308
00:10:47,829 --> 00:10:45,839
okay and so we should prefer any

309
00:10:50,550 --> 00:10:47,839
hypothesis consistent with except with

310
00:10:52,550 --> 00:10:50,560
the accepted paradigm instead and he uh

311
00:10:53,509 --> 00:10:52,560
he gets carried away on this one he says

312
00:10:55,030 --> 00:10:53,519
in fact

313
00:10:57,030 --> 00:10:55,040
and he specifically addresses

314
00:10:58,470 --> 00:10:57,040
reincarnation he says

315
00:11:00,949 --> 00:10:58,480
um

316
00:11:03,269 --> 00:11:00,959
reincarnation the the non-material and

317
00:11:06,790 --> 00:11:03,279
non-physical view of reincarnation

318
00:11:08,550 --> 00:11:06,800
should be rejected he says any theory in

319
00:11:10,949 --> 00:11:08,560
that has a physical explanation is

320
00:11:13,269 --> 00:11:10,959
better than the non-material explanation

321
00:11:14,870 --> 00:11:13,279
so for example he uses this example

322
00:11:16,790 --> 00:11:14,880
let's suppose you have you have this

323
00:11:18,310 --> 00:11:16,800
group of aliens that likes to abduct

324
00:11:20,470 --> 00:11:18,320
people and mess with their minds just

325
00:11:21,829 --> 00:11:20,480
because it's fun to do right and they

326
00:11:23,190 --> 00:11:21,839
implant they implant all these false

327
00:11:24,870 --> 00:11:23,200
memories and stuff and then they plug

328
00:11:26,389 --> 00:11:24,880
the people back into their society and

329
00:11:27,750 --> 00:11:26,399
the people go around claiming all these

330
00:11:29,910 --> 00:11:27,760
things

331
00:11:30,949 --> 00:11:29,920
he says that may be a bizarre theory but

332
00:11:32,790 --> 00:11:30,959
it's actually better than the

333
00:11:34,870 --> 00:11:32,800
non-material version because at least

334
00:11:36,230 --> 00:11:34,880
it's explainable in the physical context

335
00:11:39,030 --> 00:11:36,240
there's reason to believe there might be

336
00:11:40,630 --> 00:11:39,040
aliens it could conceivably be possible

337
00:11:43,509 --> 00:11:40,640
in a physical way to conduct those kind

338
00:11:45,430 --> 00:11:43,519
of experiments therefore even as hair

339
00:11:48,069 --> 00:11:45,440
brain design ideas it's better than

340
00:11:52,150 --> 00:11:48,079
postulating a non-physical non-material

341
00:11:57,829 --> 00:11:53,030
so

342
00:12:00,949 --> 00:11:57,839
i should prefer any hypothesis no matter

343
00:12:03,430 --> 00:12:00,959
how ridiculous it is and we see that

344
00:12:07,190 --> 00:12:03,440
oftentimes in skeptical debates

345
00:12:08,790 --> 00:12:07,200
whoa i better talk really fast okay

346
00:12:10,389 --> 00:12:08,800
uh where the paradigm argument goes

347
00:12:12,069 --> 00:12:10,399
wrong the first thing is

348
00:12:14,150 --> 00:12:12,079
oftentimes it presumes presumes that the

349
00:12:16,069 --> 00:12:14,160
available evidence is trivial current

350
00:12:17,590 --> 00:12:16,079
talks about in his paradigm

351
00:12:19,030 --> 00:12:17,600
research that

352
00:12:20,790 --> 00:12:19,040
when you get if you get a big enough

353
00:12:22,150 --> 00:12:20,800
body of evidence you can actually cause

354
00:12:23,750 --> 00:12:22,160
the paradigm to be changed you have a

355
00:12:25,990 --> 00:12:23,760
scientific revolution

356
00:12:27,750 --> 00:12:26,000
the folks who argue against psy presume

357
00:12:28,629 --> 00:12:27,760
it has or at least argue that it has

358
00:12:30,310 --> 00:12:28,639
less

359
00:12:31,910 --> 00:12:30,320
substantial evidence that has as little

360
00:12:35,269 --> 00:12:31,920
substantial evidence as many of the

361
00:12:37,350 --> 00:12:35,279
other bizarre kinds of uh claims about

362
00:12:40,389 --> 00:12:37,360
you know fringe science claims and such

363
00:12:42,870 --> 00:12:40,399
okay but the fact is they're wrong about

364
00:12:44,550 --> 00:12:42,880
this in my own research my dissertation

365
00:12:46,310 --> 00:12:44,560
i was i tried to integrate just four

366
00:12:48,550 --> 00:12:46,320
different paragraph research paradigms

367
00:12:51,030 --> 00:12:48,560
in parapsychology

368
00:12:53,030 --> 00:12:51,040
presented dean rayden pioneered this

369
00:12:54,310 --> 00:12:53,040
there i found 23 stages at the time i

370
00:12:56,310 --> 00:12:54,320
finished there's been a couple more come

371
00:12:57,670 --> 00:12:56,320
out since of those 12 were significant

372
00:12:59,269 --> 00:12:57,680
three were in a positive direction but

373
00:13:01,430 --> 00:12:59,279
non-significant

374
00:13:03,190 --> 00:13:01,440
the rest were not significant

375
00:13:04,870 --> 00:13:03,200
where if by chance there should only be

376
00:13:08,230 --> 00:13:04,880
one successful one so this shows there's

377
00:13:09,750 --> 00:13:08,240
something going on all right uh just

378
00:13:12,550 --> 00:13:09,760
direct mental interaction with living

379
00:13:14,550 --> 00:13:12,560
systems 68 studies 40 significant six

380
00:13:16,230 --> 00:13:14,560
mixed bag

381
00:13:18,230 --> 00:13:16,240
eight positive but not significant

382
00:13:19,990 --> 00:13:18,240
eleven were non-significant but some of

383
00:13:21,829 --> 00:13:20,000
those eleven were actually testing

384
00:13:24,389 --> 00:13:21,839
boundary conditions and they they almost

385
00:13:26,150 --> 00:13:24,399
don't count as replications because you

386
00:13:27,590 --> 00:13:26,160
test parameters that you don't know if

387
00:13:28,629 --> 00:13:27,600
they're actually going to work or not

388
00:13:29,829 --> 00:13:28,639
and so some of those are just

389
00:13:31,670 --> 00:13:29,839
exploratory

390
00:13:33,829 --> 00:13:31,680
so in chance for this number you would

391
00:13:35,670 --> 00:13:33,839
expect three and they actually have 40.

392
00:13:38,069 --> 00:13:35,680
remote viewing i can't even tabulate it

393
00:13:40,470 --> 00:13:38,079
there's so much material here in one

394
00:13:42,790 --> 00:13:40,480
report in 1988

395
00:13:45,910 --> 00:13:42,800
recently in class declassified

396
00:13:48,389 --> 00:13:45,920
almost 26 000 trials odds against chance

397
00:13:50,389 --> 00:13:48,399
of the successful results was 2 times 10

398
00:13:52,790 --> 00:13:50,399
to the 20th that's 2

399
00:13:55,750 --> 00:13:52,800
followed by 20 zeros

400
00:13:57,910 --> 00:13:55,760
to 1 against chance of course the pair

401
00:13:58,949 --> 00:13:57,920
pair trial 653 and you see that they got

402
00:14:01,509 --> 00:13:58,959
a great

403
00:14:02,790 --> 00:14:01,519
result as well and arv you heard some

404
00:14:05,590 --> 00:14:02,800
about that yesterday there's even more

405
00:14:07,910 --> 00:14:05,600
to say about arv they don't have time

406
00:14:10,069 --> 00:14:07,920
okay uh paradigm argues that science has

407
00:14:11,910 --> 00:14:10,079
alternative explanations to psy

408
00:14:14,310 --> 00:14:11,920
and some of those are fraud flaws

409
00:14:16,710 --> 00:14:14,320
misinterpretation of data the fact is if

410
00:14:18,550 --> 00:14:16,720
you can discount those as i think has

411
00:14:20,230 --> 00:14:18,560
been done in a number of cases

412
00:14:21,910 --> 00:14:20,240
if you eliminate them science doesn't

413
00:14:23,350 --> 00:14:21,920
have an explanation so remember go back

414
00:14:26,230 --> 00:14:23,360
to your best theories

415
00:14:28,949 --> 00:14:26,240
the reason there are best theories

416
00:14:30,710 --> 00:14:28,959
is because they have ignored the data

417
00:14:31,829 --> 00:14:30,720
and so they remain our best theories

418
00:14:33,590 --> 00:14:31,839
because they haven't dealt with the

419
00:14:34,870 --> 00:14:33,600
elephant in the room

420
00:14:36,550 --> 00:14:34,880
okay

421
00:14:38,230 --> 00:14:36,560
physicalism is different than physics

422
00:14:40,069 --> 00:14:38,240
that's the final problem they associate

423
00:14:41,670 --> 00:14:40,079
physicalism with science and it's not

424
00:14:42,629 --> 00:14:41,680
necessarily the case because here's

425
00:14:44,389 --> 00:14:42,639
physics

426
00:14:45,750 --> 00:14:44,399
the examination of physical entities

427
00:14:46,949 --> 00:14:45,760
properties and relations in their

428
00:14:48,310 --> 00:14:46,959
interactions

429
00:14:50,310 --> 00:14:48,320
physicalism is the doctrine that

430
00:14:51,910 --> 00:14:50,320
everything in the universe is physical

431
00:14:54,230 --> 00:14:51,920
or as a consequence of physical facts

432
00:14:55,509 --> 00:14:54,240
alone they are significantly different

433
00:15:00,310 --> 00:14:55,519
in import

434
00:15:02,389 --> 00:15:00,320
so physics covers physical things

435
00:15:03,670 --> 00:15:02,399
chemistry could be you know there's

436
00:15:05,030 --> 00:15:03,680
already through reduction you end up

437
00:15:06,790 --> 00:15:05,040
fitting a lot of these sciences within

438
00:15:09,189 --> 00:15:06,800
physics in the greater picture that's

439
00:15:11,750 --> 00:15:09,199
why i'm going to lay it out here biology

440
00:15:14,790 --> 00:15:11,760
geology psychology all the other ologies

441
00:15:16,230 --> 00:15:14,800
and such they all can fit within physics

442
00:15:19,030 --> 00:15:16,240
but physics and all of these other

443
00:15:21,990 --> 00:15:19,040
things fit within physicalism

444
00:15:24,230 --> 00:15:22,000
so physical is kind of umbrella doctrine

445
00:15:26,629 --> 00:15:24,240
that embraces all of these things it

446
00:15:28,870 --> 00:15:26,639
adds something additional to them okay

447
00:15:30,629 --> 00:15:28,880
so physicals is a metaphysical claim it

448
00:15:32,389 --> 00:15:30,639
deals with theories about what there is

449
00:15:35,110 --> 00:15:32,399
what is real

450
00:15:37,269 --> 00:15:35,120
fundamental nature of what exists

451
00:15:39,110 --> 00:15:37,279
okay it is asserted it's not explanatory

452
00:15:40,790 --> 00:15:39,120
it states it specifies

453
00:15:42,069 --> 00:15:40,800
everything is physical

454
00:15:44,150 --> 00:15:42,079
it doesn't give

455
00:15:45,829 --> 00:15:44,160
proof of that it gives some evidence but

456
00:15:47,189 --> 00:15:45,839
the fact is without knowing everything

457
00:15:49,110 --> 00:15:47,199
in the universe you can't know that

458
00:15:50,790 --> 00:15:49,120
everything is physical

459
00:15:52,470 --> 00:15:50,800
and since it's metaphysical and

460
00:15:55,430 --> 00:15:52,480
assertive not experimental it's actually

461
00:15:57,350 --> 00:15:55,440
not a scientific paradigm okay

462
00:15:59,990 --> 00:15:57,360
so what i claim is that accepting psi

463
00:16:01,829 --> 00:16:00,000
esp data or whatever as real requires

464
00:16:03,189 --> 00:16:01,839
little change in current scientific

465
00:16:04,710 --> 00:16:03,199
paradigms

466
00:16:07,350 --> 00:16:04,720
why okay so

467
00:16:08,389 --> 00:16:07,360
if if non let's presumably let's say

468
00:16:09,509 --> 00:16:08,399
because that's the worst case here's

469
00:16:12,790 --> 00:16:09,519
where our science is concerned if

470
00:16:14,550 --> 00:16:12,800
presumably non-physical entities exist

471
00:16:16,389 --> 00:16:14,560
it doesn't affect physics physics is

472
00:16:17,590 --> 00:16:16,399
only about what's what's physical it

473
00:16:20,550 --> 00:16:17,600
doesn't affect chemistry it doesn't

474
00:16:23,430 --> 00:16:20,560
affect geology it has exactly no impact

475
00:16:25,829 --> 00:16:23,440
on any of these sciences

476
00:16:30,470 --> 00:16:28,230
but it does on physicalism the doctrine

477
00:16:32,389 --> 00:16:30,480
that everything is physical so here's

478
00:16:34,389 --> 00:16:32,399
current formulation some things may be

479
00:16:36,150 --> 00:16:34,399
non-physical that's what we think or

480
00:16:38,790 --> 00:16:36,160
potential many of us think okay

481
00:16:41,590 --> 00:16:38,800
physicalism is everything is physical

482
00:16:42,629 --> 00:16:41,600
these are incompatible

483
00:16:44,310 --> 00:16:42,639
however

484
00:16:46,389 --> 00:16:44,320
this is all that physics as a science

485
00:16:48,470 --> 00:16:46,399
requires that some things are physical

486
00:16:50,710 --> 00:16:48,480
it's perfectly harmonious harmonious

487
00:16:52,790 --> 00:16:50,720
with the existence of psi and esp no

488
00:16:54,629 --> 00:16:52,800
paradigms need to be changed there okay

489
00:16:55,829 --> 00:16:54,639
so here's the model that i showed you

490
00:16:58,710 --> 00:16:55,839
earlier

491
00:17:00,949 --> 00:16:58,720
without the sciences physicalism kind of

492
00:17:02,069 --> 00:17:00,959
loses its force

493
00:17:03,590 --> 00:17:02,079
however

494
00:17:05,110 --> 00:17:03,600
here's the sciences with physicalism

495
00:17:07,750 --> 00:17:05,120
without physicalism the science has

496
00:17:08,630 --> 00:17:07,760
remained unchanged

497
00:17:11,110 --> 00:17:08,640
so

498
00:17:13,270 --> 00:17:11,120
as i say here no paradigms were highly

499
00:17:15,029 --> 00:17:13,280
harm the production of this presentation

500
00:17:16,470 --> 00:17:15,039
only physicalism is a dogma is

501
00:17:19,029 --> 00:17:16,480
threatened and only because of its

502
00:17:20,630 --> 00:17:19,039
universal claim everything is physical

503
00:17:22,230 --> 00:17:20,640
versus some or even most things are

504
00:17:24,230 --> 00:17:22,240
physical we can live with some or even

505
00:17:25,350 --> 00:17:24,240
most things are physical that's not an

506
00:17:29,830 --> 00:17:25,360
issue

507
00:17:29,840 --> 00:17:34,870
okay how did i do on time

508
00:17:38,310 --> 00:17:35,830
thanks

509
00:17:40,870 --> 00:17:38,320
thank you very much

510
00:17:42,710 --> 00:17:40,880
for those who would like to ask dr smith

511
00:17:51,669 --> 00:17:42,720
a question please come up front and

512
00:17:57,029 --> 00:17:53,590
i've been trying to get a remote viewer

513
00:18:00,150 --> 00:17:57,039
to talk about spotis woods uh findings

514
00:18:02,630 --> 00:18:00,160
and they're relevant right now because

515
00:18:04,950 --> 00:18:02,640
uh spotless word showed that that there

516
00:18:09,029 --> 00:18:04,960
is a negative correlation between

517
00:18:12,230 --> 00:18:09,039
geomagnetic activity and the success of

518
00:18:13,830 --> 00:18:12,240
of uh remote viewing okay uh well he did

519
00:18:16,870 --> 00:18:13,840
talk about lst has he talked about

520
00:18:17,990 --> 00:18:16,880
geomagnetism too yours has he okay all

521
00:18:18,789 --> 00:18:18,000
right

522
00:18:26,390 --> 00:18:18,799
well

523
00:18:28,070 --> 00:18:26,400
spikes and geomagnetic activity and

524
00:18:29,190 --> 00:18:28,080
well that's all i want to do okay all

525
00:18:32,470 --> 00:18:29,200
right

526
00:18:36,390 --> 00:18:35,110
i want to make three uh three brief

527
00:18:37,590 --> 00:18:36,400
comments here

528
00:18:39,270 --> 00:18:37,600
um

529
00:18:40,950 --> 00:18:39,280
the first one is that steven brush has

530
00:18:42,950 --> 00:18:40,960
done a lot of studies of people's

531
00:18:44,630 --> 00:18:42,960
acceptance or non-acceptance of

532
00:18:46,710 --> 00:18:44,640
scientific theories not necessarily

533
00:18:48,710 --> 00:18:46,720
scientific data and what he's shown is

534
00:18:50,470 --> 00:18:48,720
that basically at any given time there's

535
00:18:51,750 --> 00:18:50,480
a whole range of different

536
00:18:53,190 --> 00:18:51,760
feelings on the part of people about

537
00:18:54,870 --> 00:18:53,200
what theories are true and why they're

538
00:18:57,270 --> 00:18:54,880
through what parts of them are true and

539
00:18:58,150 --> 00:18:57,280
so on and so forth really good terrific

540
00:19:00,710 --> 00:18:58,160
stuff

541
00:19:03,029 --> 00:19:00,720
very very rigorous and

542
00:19:04,470 --> 00:19:03,039
in a variety of different disciplines

543
00:19:06,230 --> 00:19:04,480
the second thing is in the meteorite

544
00:19:08,470 --> 00:19:06,240
controversy which i did make a special

545
00:19:09,909 --> 00:19:08,480
study of myself one of the arguments was

546
00:19:11,909 --> 00:19:09,919
we shouldn't accept meteorites unless we

547
00:19:13,590 --> 00:19:11,919
can explain them so as soon as they

548
00:19:14,870 --> 00:19:13,600
realize that meteorites must come from

549
00:19:16,549 --> 00:19:14,880
the moon

550
00:19:18,549 --> 00:19:16,559
they accepted that

551
00:19:20,310 --> 00:19:18,559
in other words the wrong explanation was

552
00:19:22,470 --> 00:19:20,320
actually what allowed them to feel good

553
00:19:24,310 --> 00:19:22,480
about yeah even the wrong explanation is

554
00:19:25,110 --> 00:19:24,320
better than no explanation at all yes

555
00:19:25,990 --> 00:19:25,120
yeah

556
00:19:27,669 --> 00:19:26,000
um

557
00:19:29,270 --> 00:19:27,679
and that's psychology this isn't science

558
00:19:31,430 --> 00:19:29,280
and psychology right human psychology

559
00:19:33,110 --> 00:19:31,440
you want that go ahead yes and number

560
00:19:35,270 --> 00:19:33,120
three is you should see what happens

561
00:19:36,870 --> 00:19:35,280
with the ball lightning people and they

562
00:19:38,710 --> 00:19:36,880
as they struggle to figure out which one

563
00:19:40,870 --> 00:19:38,720
of the dozens of explanations that

564
00:19:42,470 --> 00:19:40,880
people have are possibly correct and it

565
00:19:44,150 --> 00:19:42,480
seems to me absolutely ridiculous to

566
00:19:46,470 --> 00:19:44,160
reject the

567
00:19:47,990 --> 00:19:46,480
existence of phenomenon observations

568
00:19:49,990 --> 00:19:48,000
until you can come up with a decent

569
00:19:52,549 --> 00:19:50,000
theory yeah i think

570
00:19:54,630 --> 00:19:52,559
the right thing is to try to collect the

571
00:19:56,390 --> 00:19:54,640
observations and then keep working and

572
00:19:57,590 --> 00:19:56,400
trying to come over right and that's the

573
00:19:59,909 --> 00:19:57,600
problem if

574
00:20:02,230 --> 00:19:59,919
it's not important that they accept that

575
00:20:05,270 --> 00:20:02,240
the science and and the skeptics accept

576
00:20:06,630 --> 00:20:05,280
esp data is relevant but they also quash

577
00:20:07,990 --> 00:20:06,640
research into it that's where they will

578
00:20:10,230 --> 00:20:08,000
problem-wise they'll allow you to look

579
00:20:14,230 --> 00:20:10,240
into it okay sorry am i done

580
00:20:17,190 --> 00:20:15,669
thank you very much for a great talk i

581
00:20:18,870 --> 00:20:17,200
really loved your conclusion in the

582
00:20:20,789 --> 00:20:18,880
middle i was starting to go nuts because

583
00:20:22,789 --> 00:20:20,799
some of the things that you were saying

584
00:20:24,870 --> 00:20:22,799
directly contradict my training in

585
00:20:26,950 --> 00:20:24,880
science which is that's although science

586
00:20:28,149 --> 00:20:26,960
is an interplay between empiricism and

587
00:20:30,470 --> 00:20:28,159
theory

588
00:20:32,549 --> 00:20:30,480
it has to be driven by data so if the

589
00:20:34,070 --> 00:20:32,559
data are reliable and reproducible

590
00:20:36,070 --> 00:20:34,080
theory has to change in order to

591
00:20:38,070 --> 00:20:36,080
accommodate that and not have the data

592
00:20:40,789 --> 00:20:38,080
be thrown away because the theory can't

593
00:20:43,110 --> 00:20:40,799
handle it so physicalism borders on an

594
00:20:45,510 --> 00:20:43,120
ideology or even a religion rather than

595
00:20:47,110 --> 00:20:45,520
a theory because it's not responsive to

596
00:20:48,870 --> 00:20:47,120
the data-driven natures

597
00:20:50,710 --> 00:20:48,880
of course whether your data drives the

598
00:20:52,549 --> 00:20:50,720
train depends on which school of

599
00:20:53,830 --> 00:20:52,559
philosophy in science that you adhere to

600
00:20:55,750 --> 00:20:53,840
there's arguments between both

601
00:20:58,149 --> 00:20:55,760
directions go ahead york i'm almost

602
00:21:00,230 --> 00:20:58,159
scared to hear this one go ahead

603
00:21:03,270 --> 00:21:00,240
actually i just wanted to ask if you had

604
00:21:05,190 --> 00:21:03,280
noticed that the various uh

605
00:21:06,630 --> 00:21:05,200
theory-driven arguments you were

606
00:21:08,390 --> 00:21:06,640
presenting that you've obviously run

607
00:21:09,190 --> 00:21:08,400
across in your research

608
00:21:12,230 --> 00:21:09,200
uh

609
00:21:14,950 --> 00:21:12,240
really have a strong isomorphism with

610
00:21:16,870 --> 00:21:14,960
the scientific creationist justification

611
00:21:18,390 --> 00:21:16,880
for discarding fossil evidence because

612
00:21:20,630 --> 00:21:18,400
it conflicts with the literal truth of

613
00:21:22,549 --> 00:21:20,640
the bible uh it might be useful for

614
00:21:23,750 --> 00:21:22,559
polemical purposes to point out to these

615
00:21:26,390 --> 00:21:23,760
guys that they're

616
00:21:30,870 --> 00:21:26,400
exactly like creationists

617
00:21:34,630 --> 00:21:32,470
my dissertation i actually talked about

618
00:21:37,029 --> 00:21:34,640
you know in id there's this idea of the

619
00:21:38,549 --> 00:21:37,039
god of the gaps where you know we don't

620
00:21:39,750 --> 00:21:38,559
have evidence of god in certain areas so

621
00:21:40,870 --> 00:21:39,760
but there's probably some hiding out

622
00:21:43,430 --> 00:21:40,880
there because we don't know everything

623
00:21:45,190 --> 00:21:43,440
about science and in fact

624
00:21:47,270 --> 00:21:45,200
really the skeptical side uses the same

625
00:21:48,710 --> 00:21:47,280
kind of gap argument to justify many

626
00:21:50,789 --> 00:21:48,720
other claims so yeah you're exactly

627
00:21:53,510 --> 00:21:50,799
right thank you for not uh scaring me to

628
00:21:59,110 --> 00:21:56,710
yes uh paul i wanted to ask you um what

629
00:22:01,029 --> 00:21:59,120
your thoughts were on the fact that

630
00:22:03,909 --> 00:22:01,039
current orthodox scientists and

631
00:22:08,310 --> 00:22:05,510
reject psi because it doesn't have an

632
00:22:11,750 --> 00:22:08,320
adequate theoretical explanation but yet

633
00:22:13,990 --> 00:22:11,760
they demand in medical research that

634
00:22:16,710 --> 00:22:14,000
all medical research be conducted uh

635
00:22:19,110 --> 00:22:16,720
with randomized placebo control trials

636
00:22:20,870 --> 00:22:19,120
even though the placebo effect has never

637
00:22:22,789 --> 00:22:20,880
had an adequate explanation or a

638
00:22:23,669 --> 00:22:22,799
theoretical basis so what are your

639
00:22:25,510 --> 00:22:23,679
thoughts on that it's kind of

640
00:22:29,029 --> 00:22:25,520
schizophrenic almost within the it

641
00:22:30,470 --> 00:22:29,039
doesn't have to be rational does it

642
00:22:32,149 --> 00:22:30,480
yes that you know that's of course now

643
00:22:33,669 --> 00:22:32,159
that's that's practical science it's

644
00:22:35,830 --> 00:22:33,679
application science oriented in that

645
00:22:37,590 --> 00:22:35,840
case and when you start dealing with the

646
00:22:39,510 --> 00:22:37,600
real world

647
00:22:41,190 --> 00:22:39,520
oftentimes

648
00:22:42,630 --> 00:22:41,200
the theory gets a little fuzzy and and

649
00:22:44,870 --> 00:22:42,640
they start doing going with what works

650
00:22:47,029 --> 00:22:44,880
than necessarily what's doctrine

651
00:22:49,270 --> 00:22:47,039
by the way if any of you have some great

652
00:22:50,310 --> 00:22:49,280
quotes that support the paradigm

653
00:22:52,390 --> 00:22:50,320
argument

654
00:22:53,909 --> 00:22:52,400
i'd love to have them i want to collect

655
00:22:56,149 --> 00:22:53,919
all of the you know quotes and such